How It Works
- Starts from each asset's earliest logged value
- Replays your plan month by month: assumed return plus recurring contributions
- Compares that planned balance against today's real balance
- Solves for the return that actually explains today's balance
- Weights every asset by its current value for the portfolio verdict
- Projects your milestone date at both the planned and the real pace
Key Assumptions
- 1Logged values mix deposits and growth — a balance that rose €1,000 may have earned nothing, so growth is never measured directly
- 2Comparing trajectories keeps contributions on both sides, so they cancel out
- 3Each asset is compared in its own currency, so exchange-rate swings don't masquerade as returns
- 4Assets need 5+ logged values spanning 3+ months to join the comparison
Mathematical Approach
For each asset, from its first logged value: Planned Balance = replay of Value + (Value × Assumed Return / 12) + Monthly Contribution Gap = Actual Balance / Planned Balance − 1 Real Return = the yearly rate at which the same replay lands exactly on today's actual balance (solved numerically).
Important Limitations
- Short histories make the real return swing widely — treat early readings as 'so far', not a verdict
- One bad quarter is noise; avoid lowering long-run assumptions after short dips
- One-off deposits outside the recurring contribution show up as extra 'return'
- The milestone projection assumes the realized pace continues unchanged
Important: All predictions are estimates based on assumptions and should not be considered as guaranteed outcomes. Actual results may vary significantly due to market conditions, economic changes, and personal circumstances.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know if my investments are on track?
On Track vs. Plan replays the plan you assumed — expected return plus recurring contributions — from your earliest logged balance, and compares that planned trajectory against your real balance today. It then solves for the return that actually explains your balance and shows how the gap moves your milestone date.
Why compare trajectories instead of just measuring my growth?
Because logged balances mix deposits and growth. A balance that rose may have earned nothing if the rise came from contributions. Replaying both trajectories with the same contributions makes them cancel out, isolating the return.
Is On Track vs. Plan free?
Yes — it is fully available on the free tier.
Run On Track vs. Plan on your own numbers
Wealth Path is free to download on iOS and Android — On Track vs. Plan is included in the free tier.
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The information and calculations provided are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or professional advice. Projections are hypothetical, based on assumptions that may not reflect actual market conditions. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investments carry risk of loss. Consult a qualified financial professional before making financial decisions.